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Will age have effect on presidential race?
SOUNDING BOARD
| Monday, Aug 18 2008 6:39 PM
Last Updated: Tuesday, Aug 19 2008 8:31 AM
Political observers contend an age gap is developing in this presidential campaign. Older voters are favoring Sen. John McCain, while Sen. Barack Obama's strength is with younger (or very young) voters.
But will these young voters go to the polls in sufficient numbers to vote for Obama? Does he have a lock on this age group? Are older voters solid in McCain's camp? What needs to be done to get both groups to the polls?
The Californian asked members of its Opinion section Sounding Board to weigh in on these questions. Below are some of their responses. Want to join the Sounding Board? Just e-mail a note with your interest to opinion@bakersfield.com.
During this election cycle, a number of pundits have referred to the supposed age gap between the voters committed to both Senators McCain and Obama. They believe they have found a unique characteristic associated with this election.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Remember John F. Kennedy verses Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter verses Gerald Ford, or Bill Clinton verses George H.W. Bush? History simply repeats itself, pitting the "new" against the "established."
Sen. Barack Obama does appeal to a younger voter. Why? Because he is significantly younger than Sen. John McCain. Each of the candidates attempts to use their age difference to suggest that his personal point on the time line should give him an advantage.
Tried and tested, there is no risk in voting for McCain, according to his camp. Time for a change, we've been down that path already, is the talking point from the Obama camp. In reality, the truth might be better described as something new, but risky, for Obama. Tried, but tired and found wanting for McCain.
The presidential primaries would indicate that Americans are heavily engaged in the political process this election cycle. The reported amount of money raised, and spent selecting the candidates was not only obscene, but would have solved, or underwritten, a number of the smaller, problematic issues many have talked about.
The question of whether McCain can hold his older voters rests more on how badly the economy sinks before November. As we hear of more bank failures, and rising fuel and energy costs, the older voter is likely to want to chart a new course.
The younger committed-to-Obama voters have already made up their minds that it is time for a change. Will they turn out to vote? Since they stand to be the first ones harmed by a faltering economy, and possibly at risk in what appears to be an endless conflict in the Middle East, and spurred on in a computer age, I wouldn't bet against Obama.
— Joseph Hicks of Bakersfield recently retired from the Kern County Sheriff's Department.
I suppose it is stating the obvious to point out that people tend to identify with others who are most like themselves. On the one hand, this is a simple manifestation of what is most real to someone.
If they speak a certain language, eat a certain food, share a certain religion, skin color or love of a style of music, they are most likely going to gravitate to those who like the same things.
This is only "natural." Politicians play on this persistently, trying to appear to be "everyman" just enough to appeal to a broad range of voters. On the other hand, this tendency devolves into bigotry and exclusionary thinking, something that also seems all too "natural."
Some politicians succeed in casting themselves in the role of everyman and some don't. Sen. Barack Obama'a popularity with younger voters, who are less likely to show up and vote, is easy to analyze as is Sen. John McCain's popularity with older voters, who are more likely to show up. I suppose the advantage that each has may cancel out.
However, Obama is more at risk because the enthusiasm is based, in part, on his image as a "non-politician" and on promises made to end the war, provide college funding, etc. As the campaign progresses we hear him modify his views to appeal to a broader range of voters which makes him seem more and more a real politician. Younger voters may see this as betrayal and it could hurt him.
—Peter Kjenaas of Frazier Park is the president of Cartwright Entertainment Inc.
Historically when there is a clear age difference between the choice of candidates, generations tend to vote for the candidate of "their generation." Certainly this year's presumptive candidates offer a clear generational difference, and, most likely, Sen. Barack Obama will carry the "younger" vote and Sen. John McCain the "older" vote.
Whether or not young voters will turn out could make the deciding difference. We know that in the past, young voters tend not to vote. But, somehow, I suspect this year is different perhaps only marginally so.
I would predict we will see a higher percentage of younger citizens voting perhaps as much as twice the typical rate. That alone may be enough to make the difference.
Regardless of one's political leanings, I for one would applaud an increased turnout of younger voters. This would bode well for us as a nation to have our younger citizens exercise their participation in the electoral process.
Whether or not these voting blocks turn out depends solely on the ability of the candidates' organizations. Right now, all signs point to Barack Obama's campaign being better organized, as evidenced by their ability to generate large crowds and a significant advantage in fundraising, much of this coming from individual donors.
On a personal level, I haven't and won't vote solely or even primarily on the basis of the candidate's age. That would be as narrow as voting for someone solely on the basis of race or gender.
Rather, the more critical issue for me will be: Does the candidate possess character and policies that I believe will best lead our nation? Have they evidenced leadership that reflects humility and the ability to gain people's trust and attract quality leaders to join them? I will vote for that candidate, regardless of age.
One final thought: We are still months away from the general election. In politics, that is a lifetime. There will be many twists and turns between now and then that could alter any voting blocks that seem to exist today.
This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting elections in my lifetime. As long we all do our own homework (rather letting talk show hosts or national news anchors do our thinking for us) and vote for the candidate who most reflects what we want our country to be known for, we'll be just fine.
In the end, I believe we elect a reflection of ourselves as a country. It will be interesting to see "who we are."
—Stephen Dinger of Bakersfield is superintendent of schools for St. John's Lutheran Church and School.